US average hourly earnings MoM 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. YoY 3.9% vs 4.0% expected.

Some more detail from the April US jobs report:Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%Average hourly earnings YoY 3.9% versus 4.0% expected. Last month 4.1%.Average work week Hrs 34.3% versus 34.4 expected. Last month 34.4The labor force participation rate for April 62.7% vs 62.7% last monthU6 (underemployment rate) 7.4% versus 7.3% last month. Just prior to the release:2-year yield 4.862%10-year yield 4.546%Dow implied +296 pointsS&P index +18.80 pointsNASDAQ index +112.96 pointThe initial reaction 2-minutes after the release:2-year yield 4.716%10- year yield 4.460%Dow implied 554 pointsS&P index +54 pointsNASDAQ index +259 pointsTwo cuts are fully priced for the end of the year (52 basis points) vs 42 basis points prior to the report.The USD is lower:EURUSD: has extended above its 200-day moving average to 1.07967 to an intraday high of 1.0811. The 50% of the move down from the March 2023 high comes in at 1.07906. That is now a close risk/support level.USDJPY has moved down to the old ceiling from the 2022, 2023 and the old 2024 high near 151.86 to 151.96. The low just reached 151.855. KEY LEVEL TRADERS. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

May 3, 2024 - 19:30
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US average hourly earnings MoM 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. YoY 3.9% vs 4.0% expected.

Some more detail from the April US jobs report:

  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. Last month 0.3%
  • Average hourly earnings YoY 3.9% versus 4.0% expected. Last month 4.1%.
  • Average work week Hrs 34.3% versus 34.4 expected. Last month 34.4
  • The labor force participation rate for April 62.7% vs 62.7% last month
  • U6 (underemployment rate) 7.4% versus 7.3% last month.

Just prior to the release:

  • 2-year yield 4.862%
  • 10-year yield 4.546%
  • Dow implied +296 points
  • S&P index +18.80 points
  • NASDAQ index +112.96 point

The initial reaction 2-minutes after the release:

  • 2-year yield 4.716%
  • 10- year yield 4.460%
  • Dow implied 554 points
  • S&P index +54 points
  • NASDAQ index +259 points

Two cuts are fully priced for the end of the year (52 basis points) vs 42 basis points prior to the report.

The USD is lower:

  • EURUSD: has extended above its 200-day moving average to 1.07967 to an intraday high of 1.0811. The 50% of the move down from the March 2023 high comes in at 1.07906. That is now a close risk/support level.
  • USDJPY has moved down to the old ceiling from the 2022, 2023 and the old 2024 high near 151.86 to 151.96. The low just reached 151.855. KEY LEVEL TRADERS.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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