UBS says Fed December meeting minutes are fuelling confirmation bias

UBS is suggesting market participants are reading the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting through a lens of their pre-existing views. I am not surprised by this at all. I struggling not to do so myself. UBS:The minutes confirm whatever you wanted to think about the direction of US interest rates before the release.UBS are forecasting three cuts from the Fed this year, saying the minutes: are consistent with three rate cutsAs to timing:starting later than March---Earlier (not UBS):DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Sherman says a March FOMC rate cut is "a little optimistic"---Also from earlier:Pic via FedWatch This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Jan 5, 2024 - 03:25
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UBS says Fed December meeting minutes are fuelling confirmation bias

UBS is suggesting market participants are reading the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) December meeting through a lens of their pre-existing views. I am not surprised by this at all. I struggling not to do so myself.

UBS:

  • The minutes confirm whatever you wanted to think about the direction of US interest rates before the release.

UBS are forecasting three cuts from the Fed this year, saying the minutes:

  • are consistent with three rate cuts

As to timing:

  • starting later than March

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Earlier (not UBS):

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Also from earlier:

Pic via FedWatch This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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