The Impact Of Muslim Votes On Maharashtra Assembly Election Results

The sweep of the ruling alliance in Maharashtra has been widely attributed to the welfare programmes of the Eknath Shinde government. But a key factor has been the split in Muslim vote which has delivered a chunk of the state's 38 seats to the ruling alliance. The Muslim population is more than 20 per cent in these 38 seats, making a key difference in the outcome of the election. Over all, the ruling alliance has won 22 of these 38 seats, way ahead of the 13 won by the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi.

The split in votes has hit the Congress hard - the party's score has dropped from 11 to five. The Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena Uddhav has got six seats and Sharad Pawar's NCP faction got two.

Of the 38 seats, the BJP has increased its tally from 11 in 2019 to 14. The Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde has won six seats and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party two seats.

Of the remaining three seats, Samajwadi Party got two and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM got just one.

The outcome indicates that the clerics failed to dominate the collective decision of the Muslim community - a situation that helped the BJP strengthen its allegations of "vote jihad" or consolidation of Muslim votes against the Mahayuti.

Denying Opposition allegations of polarisation, senior BJP leader Vinay Sahasrabuddhe said all communities are included in the slogan "Ek hain toh safe hain". "People did not fall prey to the politics of appeasement and polarisation of the MVA, and came together to vote for development. All communities are included in our 'Ek hain toh safe hain' mantra," he said.

"There was no place for appeasement, people here look at development and benefits," said Salim Sarang, the president of the Muslim Welfare Association.

Among the big Muslim names who lost were NCP's Nawab Malik and Zeeshan Siddiqui as well as Congress's Arif Naseem Khan.

Data indicates that while the support of the Muslim community helped the MVA win a big victory in the Lok Sabha election held in May, what went against them in the Assembly polls were low enthusiasm, divided votes and communal polarization in some seats. In some seats, the presence of multiple Muslim candidates split votes.

For instance, in Aurangabad East, AIMIM state chief and former MP Imtiaz Jaleel lost to the BJP's Atul Save by 2,161 votes. VBA's Afsar Khan (6,507 votes) and SP's Abdul Gaffar Syed (5,943 votes) split the Muslim vote in the seat, ensuring Jaleel's defeat.

The only seat AIMIM won was in Muslim-dominated Malegaon Central, where its candidate Mufti Ismail, the sitting MLA, won by just 162 votes-the lowest margin in the state.

Meanwhile, in Bhiwandi West, Mahesh Chaugule of the BJP defeated Riyaz Azmi of the SP by 31,293 votes as Muslims also divided their votes between AIMIM's Waris Pathan (15,800 votes) and Independent Vilas Patil (31,579 votes).