NZDUSD moved into a cluster of technical levels ahead of the RBNZ rate decision
The NZDUSD has been moving steadily to the downside after peaking at the start of next week near 0.63778. The low price today has reached 0.6116 so far. In doing so the price has started to extend into a cluster of technical levels including the: 100 day moving average of 0.6121 50% retracement of the move up from the July lower to the end of September high at 0.6113200 day moving average at 0.60981 Swing area between 0.6098 and 0.61229 This area should give traders some cause for pause after the sharp move lower over the last week. However, the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday in New Zealand is expected to yield a 50 basis point cut. With the Fed odds of a cut down to around 83% for a 25 basis point cut. The chance of NO cut from the Fed is now up to around 17%. That may put continued pressure on the pair. Nevertheless, the market knows this and as a result, the technicals have to prove it through a break below the area.What would disappoint the sellers?On Friday, the price moved below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.6179. Within that area is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.61757. My feeling is that the price we need to get above that area to disappoint the sellers.For dip buyer, leaning against this area would need to stall the fall to give the buyers the hope for a corrective move higher. For the buyers, risk can be defined and limited against the 200-day moving average at 0.60981. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The NZDUSD has been moving steadily to the downside after peaking at the start of next week near 0.63778. The low price today has reached 0.6116 so far. In doing so the price has started to extend into a cluster of technical levels including the:
- 100 day moving average of 0.6121
- 50% retracement of the move up from the July lower to the end of September high at 0.6113
- 200 day moving average at 0.60981
- Swing area between 0.6098 and 0.61229
This area should give traders some cause for pause after the sharp move lower over the last week. However, the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday in New Zealand is expected to yield a 50 basis point cut. With the Fed odds of a cut down to around 83% for a 25 basis point cut. The chance of NO cut from the Fed is now up to around 17%.
That may put continued pressure on the pair.
Nevertheless, the market knows this and as a result, the technicals have to prove it through a break below the area.
What would disappoint the sellers?
On Friday, the price moved below a swing area between 0.6167 and 0.6179. Within that area is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.61757. My feeling is that the price we need to get above that area to disappoint the sellers.
For dip buyer, leaning against this area would need to stall the fall to give the buyers the hope for a corrective move higher. For the buyers, risk can be defined and limited against the 200-day moving average at 0.60981. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
