Trump has completely upended the Canadian electoral landscape
I don't think anything has ever happened in Canadian political history quite like what's unfolding right now and I suspect it's rare in western democracies.At the turn of the year, the Canadian Liberal party under Trudeau was polling at 16% compared to Conservatives at 45%. But shortly afterwards, the deeply-unpopular Trudeau announced he was quitting and Trump started talking about annexing the country.At that point, Liberals went hard against Trump and Conservatives pussyfooted around an issue that galvanized the country. Then Mark Carney shifted the Liberals to the right and brought an impressive resume (at least to an outside observer) and now all bets are off.Canadian pollster Angus Reid is now out with a new poll that has Liberals leading 42% to 37% -- into possible majority government territory.There is a big caveat in that Liberal voters appear to be soft:While the party has skyrocketed into majority territory not seen since 2016, much of this vote intention lacks solidity. Half of would-be Liberal voters currently say they’re very committed to this position (49%), 17-points lower than the CPC base (66%).I expect Carney's honeymoon will wear off as the attack ads are sharpened but it's been an unthinkably-bad start to the year for Canada's Conservative party. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
I don't think anything has ever happened in Canadian political history quite like what's unfolding right now and I suspect it's rare in western democracies.
At the turn of the year, the Canadian Liberal party under Trudeau was polling at 16% compared to Conservatives at 45%.
But shortly afterwards, the deeply-unpopular Trudeau announced he was quitting and Trump started talking about annexing the country.
At that point, Liberals went hard against Trump and Conservatives pussyfooted around an issue that galvanized the country. Then Mark Carney shifted the Liberals to the right and brought an impressive resume (at least to an outside observer) and now all bets are off.
Canadian pollster Angus Reid is now out with a new poll that has Liberals leading 42% to 37% -- into possible majority government territory.
There is a big caveat in that Liberal voters appear to be soft:
While the party has skyrocketed into majority territory not seen since 2016, much of this vote intention lacks solidity. Half of would-be Liberal voters currently say they’re very committed to this position (49%), 17-points lower than the CPC base (66%).
I expect Carney's honeymoon will wear off as the attack ads are sharpened but it's been an unthinkably-bad start to the year for Canada's Conservative party. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
