The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mostly higher after it was the strongest of the major currencies during trading yesterday. US yields were higher yesterday. They are higher again today. The 10-year yield closed 2023 just a few basis points below the end of year level of 3.886% (at 3.86%). Today, that yield is up to 3.99%. The US stocks started the year with the Nasdaq tumbling -245.41 points (or -1.63%). The Nasdaq today is down about 1/2 that as implied by the futures. Remember, the major indices are working on a 9-week winning streak. That streak is at risk in the holiday-shortened week (but we do have a key jobs report on Friday to mull over). Yesterday, stocks were influenced by a downgrade of Apple by Barclays ahead of the open (Apple shares fell -3.64% yesterday and are down -0.57% in premarket trading). Today the Fed will release the meeting minutes from the December meeting. That release will take place at 2 PM ET. The Fed kept rates unchanged. Fed Powell's comments were more dovish. The Fed dot plot forecasts a decline in rates in 2024 to 4.6% from 5.40%. The markets took that idea a bit further with expectations for about 160 pips of cuts. That idea may be waning a bit, but focus will be on what is ahead economically, and the jobs report on Friday will be a key indicator. In addition to the Fed minutes, today the ISM manufacturing index will be released with expectations of 47.1 versus 46.7 last month. The prices paid component is expected to decline to 47.5 from 49.9. Finally, employment is expected to rise to 46.1 from 45.8 last month. Also at 10 AM, the JOLTs job openings are expected to come in at 8.850M vs 8.733M last month.Earlier, the weekly US mortgage data was released. It showed:US Mortgage Refinance Index: Decreased to 358.2 from the previous value of 437.6.US Purchase Index: Dropped to 140.7, down from 148.7 previously.US Mortgage Market Index: Fell to 173.8, a decrease from the prior 191.6.US Mortgage Applications: Experienced a significant decrease of -10.7%, a larger decline compared to the previous -1.5%.US M3A 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Slightly decreased to 6.76% from the previous rate of 6.83%.End-of-year/holiday data can be hard to interpret in the housing market. A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:Crude oil is trading up $0.42 or 0.60% at $70.79 after falling yesterday on concerns about slower global growth. At this time yesterday, the price was at $73.08Gold is trading down -$12.50 or -0.60% at $2046.51. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $2067.31Silver is trading down -$0.33 or -1.42% at $23.30. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $23.88Bitcoin traded at . At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $45,452. In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are lower after mixed results yesterday. The Dow Industrial Average rose modestly by 25.50 points yesterday but the S&P and NASDAQ index help with the NASDAQ the worst performer (-1.63%).Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -127 points.. Yesterday the index rose 25.50 points or .0.07%S&P futures are implying a decline of -20.58 points.. Yesterday the index fell -27.00 points or -0.57%Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -112.65 points. Yesterday, the index fell -245.41 points or -1.63%In the European equity markets, the major indices are all trading lower:German DAX, -1.02%France CAC -1,46%UK FTSE 100 -0.64%Spain's Ibex -0.92%.Italy's FTSE MIB -1.32% major indices closed mixed:Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower:Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.22%China's Shanghai composite index , 0.17%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.85%Australia S&P/ASX -1.37%Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading higher for the 2nd day in a row2-year yield 4.353% +2.5 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.316%5-year yield 3.957% +3.5 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 3.92%10-year yield 3.976% +3.2 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 3.9511%30-year yield 4.121% +3.8 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.0972%The 2-10 year spread is at -37.5 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -22.8 basis points.In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are mixed: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins. The USD is mostly higher after it was the strongest of the major currencies during trading yesterday. US yields were higher yesterday. They are higher again today. The 10-year yield closed 2023 just a few basis points below the end of year level of 3.886% (at 3.86%). Today, that yield is up to 3.99%. The US stocks started the year with the Nasdaq tumbling -245.41 points (or -1.63%). The Nasdaq today is down about 1/2 that as implied by the futures. Remember, the major indices are working on a 9-week winning streak. That streak is at risk in the holiday-shortened week (but we do have a key jobs report on Friday to mull over). Yesterday, stocks were influenced by a downgrade of Apple by Barclays ahead of the open (Apple shares fell -3.64% yesterday and are down -0.57% in premarket trading).
Today the Fed will release the meeting minutes from the December meeting. That release will take place at 2 PM ET. The Fed kept rates unchanged. Fed Powell's comments were more dovish. The Fed dot plot forecasts a decline in rates in 2024 to 4.6% from 5.40%. The markets took that idea a bit further with expectations for about 160 pips of cuts. That idea may be waning a bit, but focus will be on what is ahead economically, and the jobs report on Friday will be a key indicator.
In addition to the Fed minutes, today the ISM manufacturing index will be released with expectations of 47.1 versus 46.7 last month. The prices paid component is expected to decline to 47.5 from 49.9. Finally, employment is expected to rise to 46.1 from 45.8 last month. Also at 10 AM, the JOLTs job openings are expected to come in at 8.850M vs 8.733M last month.
Earlier, the weekly US mortgage data was released. It showed:
- US Mortgage Refinance Index: Decreased to 358.2 from the previous value of 437.6.
- US Purchase Index: Dropped to 140.7, down from 148.7 previously.
- US Mortgage Market Index: Fell to 173.8, a decrease from the prior 191.6.
- US Mortgage Applications: Experienced a significant decrease of -10.7%, a larger decline compared to the previous -1.5%.
- US M3A 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Slightly decreased to 6.76% from the previous rate of 6.83%.
End-of-year/holiday data can be hard to interpret in the housing market.
A snapshot of the markets as the North American session begins currently shows:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.42 or 0.60% at $70.79 after falling yesterday on concerns about slower global growth. At this time yesterday, the price was at $73.08
- Gold is trading down -$12.50 or -0.60% at $2046.51. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $2067.31
- Silver is trading down -$0.33 or -1.42% at $23.30. At this time yesterday, it was trading at $23.88
- Bitcoin traded at . At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $45,452.
In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are lower after mixed results yesterday. The Dow Industrial Average rose modestly by 25.50 points yesterday but the S&P and NASDAQ index help with the NASDAQ the worst performer (-1.63%).
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -127 points.. Yesterday the index rose 25.50 points or .0.07%
- S&P futures are implying a decline of -20.58 points.. Yesterday the index fell -27.00 points or -0.57%
- Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -112.65 points. Yesterday, the index fell -245.41 points or -1.63%
In the European equity markets, the major indices are all trading lower:
- German DAX, -1.02%
- France CAC -1,46%
- UK FTSE 100 -0.64%
- Spain's Ibex -0.92%.
- Italy's FTSE MIB -1.32% major indices closed mixed:
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower:
- Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.22%
- China's Shanghai composite index , 0.17%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.85%
- Australia S&P/ASX -1.37%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading higher for the 2nd day in a row
- 2-year yield 4.353% +2.5 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.316%
- 5-year yield 3.957% +3.5 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 3.92%
- 10-year yield 3.976% +3.2 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 3.9511%
- 30-year yield 4.121% +3.8 basis points. Yesterday at this time, the yield was at 4.0972%
- The 2-10 year spread is at -37.5 basis points
- The 2-30 year spread is at -22.8 basis points.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10-year yields are mixed: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.