Opinion: Why Does BJP Want A Change In Polling Date In Haryana?

The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) state unit has requested the Election Commission of India (ECI) to change the polling date in Haryana, citing concerns that a long weekend could affect voter turnout. The Congress has accused the BJP of fearing a loss and using the request as an excuse to delay the election. In response, the BJP has asserted its readiness for elections on any date. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) has also supported the BJP's demand for a date change.

The ECI's state unit has forwarded the application to Delhi and is awaiting a response. Haryana is scheduled to vote on October 1 (Tuesday), along with the third and final phase of voting in Jammu and Kashmir, with results to be announced on October 4.

Long Weekends

Given that September 28-29 are weekends and October 2-3 are holidays (for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti and Maharaja Agrasen Jayanti), a person who takes leave on September 30 could enjoy a six-day break, including polling day, which is also a public holiday.

Haryana's urbanisation level was 28.9% according to the 2011 census, a figure likely to have increased with the expansion of the National Capital Region (NCR). Fourteen districts of Haryana are part of the NCR, including key urban centres such as Gurugram, Faridabad, Rohtak, Sonipat and Bhiwani.

The BJP traditionally performs well in urban areas. Some of these cities also have a high migrant population, which might use the extended break to visit their homes, potentially affecting the BJP's performance. Historically, rural turnout has been higher than urban turnout in general elections, though the gap has varied over the years.

In the 2024 general elections, rural turnout was 67.9% compared to 57.9% in urban areas. While rural turnout fell by around 3 percentage points from 2019, urban turnout dropped by approximately 7 percentage points. In 2024, the turnout fluctuated during four weekend phases, with an increase seen in two phases and decline in the other two.

Turnout Concerns

The BJP acknowledges that lower turnout negatively impacted its performance in the 2024 general elections. The lack of enthusiasm among key leaders, workers, and supporters contributed to the party falling short of a majority, as noted in the internal UP poll report.

A high turnout is crucial for the BJP's success. From 1996 to 2019, the BJP formed the central government five times, with increased turnout in four of these instances. Despite boasting the title of the largest party in the world and having a network of panna pramukhs (each managing 30 voters), the BJP apprehends that if some voters opt for vacation instead of voting, this advantage could be diminished.

In response to the BJP's demand, the Congress has dismissed the concerns as a sign of nervousness. Deepender Hooda posted on X (formerly Twitter) that the BJP's request for a date change is an excuse to delay the elections, reflecting its lack of substantive issues, achievements, or candidates for all 90 seats.

Limited Scope

The BJP has requested a deferral of the elections, proposing a change in dates or an extension of the polling period. With October 2 and October 3 being holidays and October 4 reserved for results, the entire polling process for Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana must be completed by October 6. There is limited scope for postponing the polls; if the ECI considers a change, it might have to advance the date, which the BJP would likely oppose.

The election is shaping up to be highly polarised, with Jats, a dominant social group in the state, supporting the Congress and non-Jats backing the BJP. In the 2024 general elections, the BJP won all five Lok Sabha seats in non-Jat dominated areas. The party is strong in urban regions like Faridabad, Ambala, and Gurugram, winning 22 of its 40 seats in the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections.

Urban-Rural Divide

The BJP's concern is that some voters may use the extended weekends for vacations, which could impact turnout. This situation highlights the growing inequality between urban and rural India, as urban voters are more likely to afford vacations compared to their rural counterparts.

In Haryana, Jats, who are predominantly farmers, have been disillusioned by the Centre's response to their protests. The Congress is working to consolidate a Jat-Dalit-Muslim alliance in rural areas. The BJP's loss of five out of 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 compared to 2019 suggests it is on the defensive.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led in 44 assembly segments, while the Congress led in 42, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in four. In 2019, the BJP led in 79 seats but won only 40 in the subsequent Vidhan Sabha polls held six months later. As the party faces ten years of incumbency, it aims to address all potential issues, including the election date, to secure a favourable outcome.

Whether the ECI will accommodate this request remains to be seen.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author