Opinion: Maratha Quota-A Short-Term Measure For Electoral Gains?

On Tuesday, the Maharashtra legislative assembly passed a bill (Maharashtra State Socially and Educationally Backward Bill 2024) providing 10% reservation to the Maratha community in education and government jobs. The state government had convened a one-day special session of the legislature for the same. The decision was taken following a comprehensive report submitted by the Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission. The survey for the same had included nearly 2 crore people, and it aimed to find out the nature and extent of social, economic, and educational backwardness faced by the Maratha community in the state.

The report says that the Maratha community comprises 28% of the state's population. The community, otherwise politically powerful, has 21.22% of its families living below the poverty line, exceeding the state's average of 17.4%. The survey also highlighted that 94% of farmer suicides in Maharashtra involve Maratha families. This was the third time in a decade that the state introduced legislation for Maratha quota.

On February 17, the 'Mahayuti' government [an alliance comprising the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)] had assured activist Manoj Jarange Patil, who had been on a hunger strike, that a special session of the assembly would be called on February 20 to complete the procedures for granting reservation to the community. However, Jarange himself has rebuffed the latest bill, calling it 'vote-bank politics' and a "betrayal to the Maratha community" since the reservation granted is not under the OBC (Other Backward Classes) category. Jarange, who has been demanding that Kunbi certificates be issued to all Marathas, accused Maharashtra minister and NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal of jeopardising the issue. The Kunbi community falls under the OBC category and Bhujbal, an OBC leader, has been opposing the reservation for Marathas under the category. Allowing the Maratha community into the OBC fold would mean parting with some share of the quota. Sources even say that the BJP used Bhujbal to stonewall the efforts.

A Possible Legal Challenge

Whether the bill will stand legal scrutiny is also a subject of concern, given the fact that previous attempts were struck down by the Supreme Court. The court's cap of 50% reservations would make it difficult for the Shinde government-Maharashtra reservations are already at 52%, and the latest Maratha quota will push it further. In earlier cases, the court had rejected state surveys that stated the Maratha community was socially, economically and educationally backward. How the government plans to convince the court this time will be eagerly observed.

Experts feel that the current dynamics within the ruling coalition, where each party seeks to be the dominant player, has forced the Shinde government to take this step just weeks ahead of elections. "The opposition in Maharashtra claims that this is just a gimmick by the government ahead of elections. They also feel it will be challenged in courts, which will strike down the proposal as the Marathas do not fit into the economically or socially backward category," says Rohit Chandavarkar, a senior journalist and political analyst. "Getting Marathas votes may benefit the government in the elections, and [it knows] very well that the courts will knock it down later." Both Shinde and NCP's Ajit Pawar, another Maratha leader, realise that the three-party bonhomie may not last long given the BJP's aspirations to win maximum seats in the state in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.  

The BJP's Maratha Outreach

The BJP leadership has long sought to bring Maratha leaders, who have traditionally been Congress-NCP voters, on its side and enhance its vote base, along with the support of urban voters, OBCs and upper castes. The crossing over of influential Maratha Congress leader and former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan into the BJP has given impetus to the party's plan of consolidating its vote base in the community. Chavan, son of the late S.B. Chavan, one of the early Maratha leaders, enjoys mass support in parts of Marathwada region and among Marathas in general across the state.    

Similarly, former Chief Minister and another Maratha leader, Narayan Rane, who was earlier with the Shiv Sena, was welcomed by the BJP in 2019 and made a union minister. The party knew that Rane could influence the state's Maratha votes and, at the same time, take on the Shiv Sena in the Konkan region. However, Rane has been keeping a low profile since the political winds shifted in the state and the BJP allied with Shinde-also a Maratha ladder-to form the government in June 2022.

The BJP has also inducted other Congress leaders such as Harshvardhan Patil and Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil to challenge Sharad Pawar's hold over sugarcane farmers in Western Maharashtra.

Image Makeover For Shinde

In the ongoing Maratha quota agitation, Shinde has emerged as the commanding leader, a neutraliser trying to diffuse the situation created by Jarange's stir, especially given the fact that Ajit Pawar is not part of the negotiations. Sources say Shinde was not happy about Ajit Pawar joining the alliance government and feels the move was meant to challenge his stature and create a competing Maratha faction within the government. There also have been instances of open tussles between the two. Now, Jarange's agitation has given Shinde an opportunity to settle the score and create a 'mass leader' image for himself. In fact, it seems it's for the first time Shinde is leading on his own, without the apparent support of his strong deputies Fadnavis and Pawar.

The BJP seems to have completed its groundwork and social engineering in Maharashtra for the coming elections. The Modi factor and the Ram Mandir inauguration might add to its vote share too. However, there are also undercurrents of resentment among middle-class Maharashtrians over the BJP's politics of splitting parties to form a coalition government. Many feel that such politics has impacted developmental work in the state. If this perception continues, the state assembly elections, due in late 2024, might throw up an unfavourable result for the BJP.    

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.