Italian central bank slashes 2024 inflation forecast in another sign of coming rate cuts
The market is increasingly comfortable with a June ECB rate cut and the door is cracked open to moving in April. Pricing is 99% for June right now and just 8% for April.Given that there is less than a week until the April 11 decision, that's not a big surprise. Perhaps the better debate is how quickly the ECB continues to cut after June. Right now, July odds are at 59% and that will be a spot to watch.The latest comes from the Bank of Italy, which is a sign of which way the wind is blowing. Their updated forecast for 2024 HICP inflation is 1.3% compared to 1.9% in December. The 2025 forecast was also lowered to 1.7% compared to 1.8%.On the growth side, the GDP forecast was unchanged at 0.6% while 2025 inched lower to 1.0% from 1.1%.If I'm Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta, I'm certainly arguing for rate cuts now rather than later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
The market is increasingly comfortable with a June ECB rate cut and the door is cracked open to moving in April. Pricing is 99% for June right now and just 8% for April.
Given that there is less than a week until the April 11 decision, that's not a big surprise. Perhaps the better debate is how quickly the ECB continues to cut after June. Right now, July odds are at 59% and that will be a spot to watch.
The latest comes from the Bank of Italy, which is a sign of which way the wind is blowing. Their updated forecast for 2024 HICP inflation is 1.3% compared to 1.9% in December. The 2025 forecast was also lowered to 1.7% compared to 1.8%.
On the growth side, the GDP forecast was unchanged at 0.6% while 2025 inched lower to 1.0% from 1.1%.
If I'm Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta, I'm certainly arguing for rate cuts now rather than later. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
