Goldman Sachs' view on China for the year ahead is not confidence inspiring
Goldman Sachs head of global currency spoke in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday, mulling further underperformance from China ahead:“You want to treat EM and EM ex-China differently. Chinese assets have been pretty uncorrelated with a lot of other EM assets for some time: that has been true on the equity side and also the fixed-income sidedespite an "aggressive hiking cycle by the Fed, a strong dollar and a slowing China, EM assets have performed resiliently.”but the continued deceleration in China is a disappointmentFrom EMs-ex China in 2024:"Emerging-market central banks hiked interest rates early, proactively and aggressively to address the coming inflationary shock. The fact that they were ahead of the game compared to a lot of developed markets I think definitely helped them,”“That macro combination is looking much better than what it has been, and that is a pretty positive thing for EM assets. We expect to see positive total returns in EM assets next year.”The way analysts are queueing up to nail the coffin shut on China it might be just the time to approach 2024 with an open mind on China outperfomance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Goldman Sachs head of global currency spoke in a Bloomberg TV interview on Tuesday, mulling further underperformance from China ahead:
- “You want to treat EM and EM ex-China differently. Chinese assets have been pretty uncorrelated with a lot of other EM assets for some time: that has been true on the equity side and also the fixed-income side
- despite an "aggressive hiking cycle by the Fed, a strong dollar and a slowing China, EM assets have performed resiliently.”
- but the continued deceleration in China is a disappointment
From EMs-ex China in 2024:
- "Emerging-market central banks hiked interest rates early, proactively and aggressively to address the coming inflationary shock. The fact that they were ahead of the game compared to a lot of developed markets I think definitely helped them,”
- “That macro combination is looking much better than what it has been, and that is a pretty positive thing for EM assets. We expect to see positive total returns in EM assets next year.”
The way analysts are queueing up to nail the coffin shut on China it might be just the time to approach 2024 with an open mind on China outperfomance. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
