ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump steel, aluminium tariffs, no exceptions, USD up
Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Presidents Speak at Kentucky and New York EventsForecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banksBank of England Governor Bailey is speaking on TuesdayBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again later on TuesdayFed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll)Two jets collided on the runway at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona - at least one deadPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1716 (vs. estimate at 7.3067)Canada promises response will be "clear and calibrated" on US steel, aluminium tariffsTrump threatens "let hell break out" if Hamas doesn't free all hostages by midday SaturdayUK BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales (January) +2.5% y/y Prior +3.1%)Australia January business confidence +4 (prior -2)New Zealand's finance minister Willis says NZ has a warm relationship with the USBoE's Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% targetDeutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick upAustralian dollar losing a few tics now as (tariff) reality bitesAustralia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% (prior -0.7%)Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others - no exception tariffsKey take away - Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs - NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONSIs MCD Stock a Buy?White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countriesThe last time Trump proposed tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium he backed downTrump agreed to consider an exemption for Australian steel tariffsTrump and Australian PM Albanese have spoken (probably on steel tariffs)Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Gold hits another record highEurozone to shrug off Trump steel and aluminium tariffs? EUR/USD forecast to 1.08US home price cuts are at the highest in over a decadeTrade ideas thread - Tuesday, 11 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25% ‘without exceptions or exemptions’. They’ll take effect on March 4 (so, still time for him to change his mind). The USD responded in a slow manner, rising over the course of the session, not by too much.EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, JPY and CHF are all lower.The situation for the Australian dollar was confusing. Australian Prime Minister Albanese said Trump is considering an exemption for Australia. Minutes later we had Trump shouting ‘no exceptions or exemptions’. Minutes after that we had Trump conceding he was considering an exemption for Australia. You’d think AUD would have swung around on all this headline ping-pong. It did, but in a small range only. Tiny really. As the session progressed and some risk was taken off the table the AUD slid a little further. On the data front later we had an improvement for Australian business confidence, turning a little positive in January at +4, from -2 in December. Business conditions slipped from December (to +3 from +6).Back to Trump’s tariffs, Canada’s industry minister said the tariffs are "totally unjustified”, that he is consulting with international partners on them, and that Canada's response will be "clear and calibrated." Canada is a major exporter of steel to the US. Catherine Mann, a Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, was reported in the Financial Times as saying she sees firms struggling to increase prices now as consumers trim their spending, You’ll recall that at last week’s meeting the normally more hawkish Mann pivoted to a dovish dissent, wanting to cut the Bank rate by 50bp instead of the 25bp that was decided upon. Mann is speaking twice in the sessions to come today. Gold hit a record high above USD2940, up over 1%. It then dropped back, shedding USD30 in rapid time. I didn’t see any news-type catalyst. Trump warned that if Hamas does not release all Israeli hostages by midday Saturday, he will push to cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allow military action to resume. "If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I’d say cancel it and all bets are off—let hell break out".Gold: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
- Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Presidents Speak at Kentucky and New York Events
- Forecasts for US January inflation (CPI headline and core) from 17 investment banks
- Bank of England Governor Bailey is speaking on Tuesday
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Mann is speaking again later on Tuesday
- Fed expected to delay rate cuts as inflation risks rise, economists say (Reuters poll)
- Two jets collided on the runway at Scottsdale Airport in Arizona - at least one dead
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1716 (vs. estimate at 7.3067)
- Canada promises response will be "clear and calibrated" on US steel, aluminium tariffs
- Trump threatens "let hell break out" if Hamas doesn't free all hostages by midday Saturday
- UK BRC Like-for-like Retail Sales (January) +2.5% y/y Prior +3.1%)
- Australia January business confidence +4 (prior -2)
- New Zealand's finance minister Willis says NZ has a warm relationship with the US
- BoE's Mann says UK inflation is less of a threat, prices coming close to 2% target
- Deutsche Bank forecasts softer headline US CPI, but core inflation to pick up
- Australian dollar losing a few tics now as (tariff) reality bites
- Australia February Consumer Sentiment +0.1% (prior -0.7%)
- Trump cancelled deals with allies EU, UK, Japan, Australia, others - no exception tariffs
- Key take away - Trump's 25% steel and aluminium tariffs - NO EXEMPTIONS or EXCEPTIONS
- Is MCD Stock a Buy?
- White House says 25% steel tariffs will apply to all countries
- The last time Trump proposed tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium he backed down
- Trump agreed to consider an exemption for Australian steel tariffs
- Trump and Australian PM Albanese have spoken (probably on steel tariffs)
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Gold hits another record high
- Eurozone to shrug off Trump steel and aluminium tariffs? EUR/USD forecast to 1.08
- US home price cuts are at the highest in over a decade
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 11 February, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25% ‘without exceptions or exemptions’. They’ll take effect on March 4 (so, still time for him to change his mind).
The USD responded in a slow manner, rising over the course of the session, not by too much.
EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, JPY and CHF are all lower.
The situation for the Australian dollar was confusing. Australian Prime Minister Albanese said Trump is considering an exemption for Australia. Minutes later we had Trump shouting ‘no exceptions or exemptions’. Minutes after that we had Trump conceding he was considering an exemption for Australia.
You’d think AUD would have swung around on all this headline ping-pong. It did, but in a small range only. Tiny really. As the session progressed and some risk was taken off the table the AUD slid a little further.
On the data front later we had an improvement for Australian business confidence, turning a little positive in January at +4, from -2 in December. Business conditions slipped from December (to +3 from +6).
Back to Trump’s tariffs, Canada’s industry minister said the tariffs are "totally unjustified”, that he is consulting with international partners on them, and that Canada's response will be "clear and calibrated." Canada is a major exporter of steel to the US.
Catherine Mann, a Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member, was reported in the Financial Times as saying she sees firms struggling to increase prices now as consumers trim their spending, You’ll recall that at last week’s meeting the normally more hawkish Mann pivoted to a dovish dissent, wanting to cut the Bank rate by 50bp instead of the 25bp that was decided upon. Mann is speaking twice in the sessions to come today.
Gold hit a record high above USD2940, up over 1%. It then dropped back, shedding USD30 in rapid time. I didn’t see any news-type catalyst.
Trump warned that if Hamas does not release all Israeli hostages by midday Saturday, he will push to cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allow military action to resume. "If all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I’d say cancel it and all bets are off—let hell break out".
Gold: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
