Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 15 May: Green grass ahead as CPI/spending is tame
US stocks close at record highs as the market looks past inflationWestpac eyes a stronger AUD/USDUS crude oil settles at $78.63All three major US indices on pace for record closing levelsBitcoin climbs above $65,000 and carves out an intriguing chart patternGold is back in the hunt for $2400Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 down to 3.8%Feds Kashkari: Fed is focused on underlying demand to bring inflation downThis chart is the bull case for everythingOPEC likely to hold its June 1 oil policy meeting online - reportUS Business inventories for March fell -0.1% vs -0.1% estimateEIA weekly US oil inventories -2508K vs -543K expectedWTI crude oil falls to the lowest since February. Inventory data up nextNAHB US May housing index 45 vs 51 expectedECB officials cautious about easing beyond June - reportKickstart the FX trading day for May 15 with a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSDTimiraos: One good print can't offset three unfavorable onesSlovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has been shot (update: He's in stable condition)Green light for risk assets?Canada March manufacturing sales -2.1% versus -2.6% expectedUS April retail sales 0.0% vs 0.4% estimateUS NY Fed Manufacturing index for May -15.6 vs -16.00 estimateUS April CPI 3.4% y/y versus 3.4% expectedCanada April housing starts 240.2K vs 238.0K expectedThe JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session beginsForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar, yields heavy going into CPI showdownThe US CPI, retail sales and NY manufacturing data cooperated with CPI coming in on the lower side of 0.3%, retail sales showed no gain in the month and the NY manufacturing day was weaker. All of that gave the green light for the risk assets as yields moved lower, stocks soared and the USD tumbled. Happy days are here again. For the US stocks, the sharp rise in the indices sent the 3 major indices ALL to record closing levels. Dow industrial average rose 349.89 points or 0.88% at 39908.01. That was above the prior high closing level of 39807.38.S&P rose 61.45 points or 1.17% at 5308.14. The index closed at a record level yesterday. So closing in positive territory was good enough so 61.45 points was more than good enough.Nasdaq index rose 231.21 points or 1.40% at 16742.39. Like the S&P, it too closed at record levels yesterday. The 231 point gain upped the new high closing level for tomorrow's trading. The small-cap Russell 2000 index also rose sharply (but not to record levels). It rose 23.76 points or 1.14% at 2109.45.. The all-time high closing level is still miles away at 2458.85. That implies another 16.69% rise from the current levels.For the trading year, the Dow is now up 5.89%S&P index is up 11.29%NASDAQ index is up 11.53%The Russell 2000 is up 4.06%.Gains in the US were not limited to the US borders. European shares also moved higher with the German DAX, France CAC, UK FTSE 100, Spain's Ibex, and Italy's FTSE MIB closing at record levels as well,In the US debt market, the 10-year yield is down 10 basis points on the day. A snap shot of the yield curve shows:2 year yield 4.723%, -9.5 basis points5-year yield 4.343%, -11.5 basis points10 year yield 4.343%, -10.1 basis points30-year yield 4.503%, -8.9 basis pointsThe 2-year yield moved back below its 200 day moving average at 4.757%. A traded as high as 5.04% on April 29. For the 10-year yield it moved down to tests its 200 day MA at 4.33% today and stalled. A move below would tilt the bias more to the downside going forward.In the forex market today, the USD was the weakest of the major currencies. The strongest of the majors were the NZD and the AUD as risk-on flows dominated in the major currencies. For the EURUSD technically, the pairs price moved up and away from its 100-day moving average at 1.08235 and also above it 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March high at 1.0835. The pair has moved up into the next target swing area between 1.0875 and 1.0887. The price is trading at session within that swing area. That area will be a key barometer in the new trading day for both buyers and sellers.The GBPUSD extended above its 100-day moving average of 1.2633 and also it 61.8% retracement of the 2024 trading range at 1.26659. The current price is trading at 1.2684. Staying above the 61.8% retracement is the best-case scenario for the buyers. The swing highs from April 9 and April 10 or near 1.2703 and the next target.The USDJPY is trading above and below the 38.2% retracement of the trading range since the March low. That level comes in at 154.96. That level will be a key barometer in the new trading day for that pair. Since peaking at 160.208, the price has retraced over 500 pips but is still say off the low from March at 146.47 (with the 50% midpoint at 153.34).In other markets today:Crude oil is trading up $0.83 or 1.06% at $78.85 after trading as low as $76.70. The weekly inventories in crude oil and gasoline showed a surprising drawdown which led to a rotation back to the
- US stocks close at record highs as the market looks past inflation
- Westpac eyes a stronger AUD/USD
- US crude oil settles at $78.63
- All three major US indices on pace for record closing levels
- Bitcoin climbs above $65,000 and carves out an intriguing chart pattern
- Gold is back in the hunt for $2400
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 down to 3.8%
- Feds Kashkari: Fed is focused on underlying demand to bring inflation down
- This chart is the bull case for everything
- OPEC likely to hold its June 1 oil policy meeting online - report
- US Business inventories for March fell -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate
- EIA weekly US oil inventories -2508K vs -543K expected
- WTI crude oil falls to the lowest since February. Inventory data up next
- NAHB US May housing index 45 vs 51 expected
- ECB officials cautious about easing beyond June - report
- Kickstart the FX trading day for May 15 with a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
- Timiraos: One good print can't offset three unfavorable ones
- Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has been shot (update: He's in stable condition)
- Green light for risk assets?
- Canada March manufacturing sales -2.1% versus -2.6% expected
- US April retail sales 0.0% vs 0.4% estimate
- US NY Fed Manufacturing index for May -15.6 vs -16.00 estimate
- US April CPI 3.4% y/y versus 3.4% expected
- Canada April housing starts 240.2K vs 238.0K expected
- The JPY is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the NA session begins
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar, yields heavy going into CPI showdown
The US CPI, retail sales and NY manufacturing data cooperated with CPI coming in on the lower side of 0.3%, retail sales showed no gain in the month and the NY manufacturing day was weaker. All of that gave the green light for the risk assets as yields moved lower, stocks soared and the USD tumbled. Happy days are here again.
For the US stocks, the sharp rise in the indices sent the 3 major indices ALL to record closing levels.
- Dow industrial average rose 349.89 points or 0.88% at 39908.01. That was above the prior high closing level of 39807.38.
- S&P rose 61.45 points or 1.17% at 5308.14. The index closed at a record level yesterday. So closing in positive territory was good enough so 61.45 points was more than good enough.
- Nasdaq index rose 231.21 points or 1.40% at 16742.39. Like the S&P, it too closed at record levels yesterday. The 231 point gain upped the new high closing level for tomorrow's trading.
The small-cap Russell 2000 index also rose sharply (but not to record levels). It rose 23.76 points or 1.14% at 2109.45.. The all-time high closing level is still miles away at 2458.85. That implies another 16.69% rise from the current levels.
For the trading year, the
- Dow is now up 5.89%
- S&P index is up 11.29%
- NASDAQ index is up 11.53%
The Russell 2000 is up 4.06%.
Gains in the US were not limited to the US borders. European shares also moved higher with the German DAX, France CAC, UK FTSE 100, Spain's Ibex, and Italy's FTSE MIB closing at record levels as well,
In the US debt market, the 10-year yield is down 10 basis points on the day. A snap shot of the yield curve shows:
- 2 year yield 4.723%, -9.5 basis points
- 5-year yield 4.343%, -11.5 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.343%, -10.1 basis points
- 30-year yield 4.503%, -8.9 basis points
The 2-year yield moved back below its 200 day moving average at 4.757%. A traded as high as 5.04% on April 29.
For the 10-year yield it moved down to tests its 200 day MA at 4.33% today and stalled. A move below would tilt the bias more to the downside going forward.
In the forex market today, the USD was the weakest of the major currencies. The strongest of the majors were the NZD and the AUD as risk-on flows dominated in the major currencies.
For the EURUSD technically, the pairs price moved up and away from its 100-day moving average at 1.08235 and also above it 61.8% retracement of the move down from the March high at 1.0835. The pair has moved up into the next target swing area between 1.0875 and 1.0887. The price is trading at session within that swing area. That area will be a key barometer in the new trading day for both buyers and sellers.
The GBPUSD extended above its 100-day moving average of 1.2633 and also it 61.8% retracement of the 2024 trading range at 1.26659. The current price is trading at 1.2684. Staying above the 61.8% retracement is the best-case scenario for the buyers. The swing highs from April 9 and April 10 or near 1.2703 and the next target.
The USDJPY is trading above and below the 38.2% retracement of the trading range since the March low. That level comes in at 154.96. That level will be a key barometer in the new trading day for that pair. Since peaking at 160.208, the price has retraced over 500 pips but is still say off the low from March at 146.47 (with the 50% midpoint at 153.34).
In other markets today:
- Crude oil is trading up $0.83 or 1.06% at $78.85 after trading as low as $76.70. The weekly inventories in crude oil and gasoline showed a surprising drawdown which led to a rotation back to the upside.
- Risk on sentiment sent the price of big point backup toward $66,000. The current price is trading at $65,992.
- Gold is also moving sharply higher helped by the lower US dollar and lower interest rates. The price is up $27.90 or 1.18% at $2385.70.
Thank you for your support. Good fortune with your trading. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
