Fed's Cook: If inflation progress slows w/ jobs still solid, could see pause
Fed's Cook is speaking on the economy and monetary policy and says:If labor market and inflation evolve as expected, would be appropriate to continue lowering policy rate towards neutral.If inflation progress slows with job market still solid, could see a scenario for pausing.Totality of data suggests disinflation still underway with labor market gradually cooling.Cuts so far were a strong step toward removing policy restriction.Magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on coming data, outlook, balance of risks; policy not preset.Risks right now are roughly in balance.Economy is in a good position, though core inflation still somewhat elevated.Elevated core inflation suggests Fed still has further to go.Housing services account for most of the excess of core inflation.Economic growth robust, expect expansion will continue.Job risks weighted to the downside, but have diminished in recent months.Slowing wage growth increases confidence in continued disinflation.Job market overall remains solid; recent weak growth a result of temporary strike, storm effects.Labor market largely normalized, no longer a source of inflation.Continued growth with slowing inflation could mean underlying potential is greater than thought.Faster productivity growth appears to have supported both potential and actual growth.Keeps the options open but is confident that inflation will continue to move lower.A view from WSJ Timiraos: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Fed's Cook is speaking on the economy and monetary policy and says:
- If labor market and inflation evolve as expected, would be appropriate to continue lowering policy rate towards neutral.
- If inflation progress slows with job market still solid, could see a scenario for pausing.
- Totality of data suggests disinflation still underway with labor market gradually cooling.
- Cuts so far were a strong step toward removing policy restriction.
- Magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on coming data, outlook, balance of risks; policy not preset.
- Risks right now are roughly in balance.
- Economy is in a good position, though core inflation still somewhat elevated.
- Elevated core inflation suggests Fed still has further to go.
- Housing services account for most of the excess of core inflation.
- Economic growth robust, expect expansion will continue.
- Job risks weighted to the downside, but have diminished in recent months.
- Slowing wage growth increases confidence in continued disinflation.
- Job market overall remains solid; recent weak growth a result of temporary strike, storm effects.
- Labor market largely normalized, no longer a source of inflation.
- Continued growth with slowing inflation could mean underlying potential is greater than thought.
- Faster productivity growth appears to have supported both potential and actual growth.
Keeps the options open but is confident that inflation will continue to move lower.
A view from WSJ Timiraos: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
