Fed's Barkin: The big picture of US data on inflation and jobs has been remarkable
Recent data on PPI and CPI have been 'less good', showing dependence of disinflation on goodsJanuary data 'made things harder' but should not put too much weight on the month's information given known seasonality issuesEase of hiring is not yet back to normal but conditions are improvingProductivity metrics are 'poor' and need to be viewed over longer time periodsIt's too soon to say there's been a sea change in productivity but firms are investingWeaker growth overseas should not have much impact on the US recoveryThe US still has a ways to go to get a soft landingThe US is on the back end of its inflation problem, the question is how much longer it will takeThe market has also taken a cautious view on the January CPI surprise but that will raise the stakes for February numbers. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
- Recent data on PPI and CPI have been 'less good', showing dependence of disinflation on goods
- January data 'made things harder' but should not put too much weight on the month's information given known seasonality issues
- Ease of hiring is not yet back to normal but conditions are improving
- Productivity metrics are 'poor' and need to be viewed over longer time periods
- It's too soon to say there's been a sea change in productivity but firms are investing
- Weaker growth overseas should not have much impact on the US recovery
- The US still has a ways to go to get a soft landing
- The US is on the back end of its inflation problem, the question is how much longer it will take
The market has also taken a cautious view on the January CPI surprise but that will raise the stakes for February numbers.
