ECB's Knot: Markets are getting ahead of themselves on rate cuts
A lot must go well for inflation to hit 2% in 2025We need to see a turnaround in wagesPolicy easing, if and when it happens, will be very gradualRate path priced by markets can be self-defeatingThe more easing markets are doing, the less likely we'll cutThe messaging is all over the place if you throw in Lagarde's comment about cutting rates by the summer here. If this isn't textbook ECB, I don't know what is. But at this point, I reckon markets will be more than convinced that April is on track to be the first stop for the central bank to begin the easing process. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
- A lot must go well for inflation to hit 2% in 2025
- We need to see a turnaround in wages
- Policy easing, if and when it happens, will be very gradual
- Rate path priced by markets can be self-defeating
- The more easing markets are doing, the less likely we'll cut
The messaging is all over the place if you throw in Lagarde's comment about cutting rates by the summer here. If this isn't textbook ECB, I don't know what is. But at this point, I reckon markets will be more than convinced that April is on track to be the first stop for the central bank to begin the easing process.
