Markets increase bets on ECB rate cuts following the softer inflation figures

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 64 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 60 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) Following the soft French and Spanish CPI data, traders increased the expected easing from 56 bps to 60 bps.BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 48 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 66 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)RBNZ: 60 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) SNB: 12 bps (75% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) Rate hikes by year-endBoJ: 33 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Mar 28, 2025 - 15:50
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Markets increase bets on ECB rate cuts following the softer inflation figures

Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 64 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 60 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

Following the soft French and Spanish CPI data, traders increased the expected easing from 56 bps to 60 bps.

  • BoE: 45 bps (56% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 48 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 66 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 60 bps (70% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 12 bps (75% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 33 bps (73% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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